Trouble is brewing in the sea. The Pacific Ocean has transitioned away from La Niña conditions, when a long band of cold water forms off the coast of South America, and is barreling toward its counterpart: an El Niño, when a warm band emerges instead. Scientists expect El Niño to arrive in the next few months, with a 55 percent chance of it being a particularly strong event. This shift could help raise global temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Paris Agreement’s warming threshold, and will influence weather all over the world, potentially causing significant droughts in some places while boosting extreme rainfall in others.